Herd faces huge challenge in bowl showdown

Marshall will need QB Grant Wells to play
at an all-star level to best Buffalo.
(Associated Press photo/Emilee Chinn)

On paper, the prospects don't look very promising for Marshall when it faces Buffalo in the Camellia Bowl on Friday afternoon.

In other words, the Thundering Herd could be in for a blue Christmas.

Christmas Day/December 25th
Montgomery, Alabama
2:30 p.m. (Eastern time) on ESPN

For starters, MU (7-2) will not have three of its best players available because of opt-outs. RB Brenden Knox (2019 Conference USA MVP), OT Josh Ball and LB Tavante Beckett were 1st team all-league picks. All three decided to skip the bowl game to begin their preparation for the 2021 NFL Draft. All three are projected to be chosen in the mid- to late-rounds.

On the plus side, though, there is ample  talent remaining, which includes 13 other Marshall players who were either first- or second-team All-CUSA. But whether that's enough to push the Herd over the hump remains to be seen.

Areas of concern

Loss of key personnel isn't the only issue. The Herd's performance level has been problematic over the last two games, which resulted in surprising home losses to Rice (20-0) and Alabama-Birmingham (22-13 in the CUSA title game).

As for Friday, it's crucial that Marshall's offense finds a way to get back on track. Execution has been woefully inadequate (averaging a meager 7.5 points in two previous outings). 

The Herd's inability to sustain drives and move the chains has put a strain on the defense, which hasn't played badly. But it hasn't been good enough. At the same time, they're not as dominant as they were in the first seven games when MU was undefeated.

Lately, the defense is on the field a lot longer than usual. In the late stages of games, the weariness begins to show and it results in MU not being able to deliver much-needed stops.

Time of possession a major factor

Examples: Rice controlled tempo with its ground attack and kept the ball for 36 minutes, 26 seconds. UAB was even more effective in imposing its will. The Blazers generated 468 total yards and dominated time of possession (41:26)

Buffalo (5-1) is a much different animal than UAB. Not only do the Bulls average 47.8 points and 309.5 rushing yards per game, but they have the nation's leading rusher in Jaret Patterson (178.7 yards per game).Patterson's health, however, is a question mark.

Buffalo running back Jaret Patterson has rushed
for 19 touchdowns this season (tied for second in the nation).
Photo/thecapitalsportsreport.com

In Buffalo's 38-28 loss to Ball State in the MAC championship game, he injured a knee in the third quarter and came back in the fourth quarter, but ran just one time. Media reports indicate that Patterson is expected to play on Friday.

There's a possibility that Patterson might be reduced to spot duty if he's not completely recovered. If that's the case, Buffalo will call on Kevin Marks, who ran for 97 yards and averaged 10.7 yards a carry in the MAC title game.

Long odds

Given Marshall's situation entering the Christmas Day contest, there's no denying that the Herd faces long odds to win. QB Grant Wells must rediscover his throwing touch. And he will need help from a productive running game that will help the Herd build confidence and momentum as the game plays out.

In one game, anything can happen. So, the Herd cannot be counted out. But the loss of three marquee players combined with this recent losing skid could be too much for Marshall to overcome.

My prediction: Buffalo 29, Marshall 20.

I would love to be wrong about this. After all, games are not played on paper. That's why they play in the first place. Stay tuned.

-Craig T. Greenlee