My take-aways on Camellia Bowl 2020

Herd quarterback Grant Wells moved his team downfield
in the waning seconds. But Buffalo's defense responded 
with two sacks to preserve the victory.
(Photo by Jake Crandall/Montgomery Advertiser)

A few days have passed since Marshall's football season ended with a third straight setback. Understandably, it was not a joyous scene. But that's hardly sufficient reason for fans of the Big Green to embrace the notion that the future is bleak.

Here's my take on what I saw on Christmas Day when the Thundering Herd came up empty in a 17-10 loss to Buffalo in the Camellia Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama. The final outcome was a bit different from what I anticipated.

The outlook was not very favorable for the Herd. Aside from having three of its premier players opt out of the game (to get ready for the NFL), the team was on a downward spiral. Prior to the bowl game, MU suffered head-scratching back-to-back losses.

On Christmas Day, Marshall's Thundering Herd  was its own worst enemy. Yet, they still had a legitimate shot to force overtime or win the game with a touchdown and two-point conversion. It was a minor miracle that Marshall managed to stay in contention.

Consider these stumbling blocks that MU managed to deal with for the bowl game.  

• Six starters did not play.
• Three consecutive bone-headed plays on special teams -- disastrous and downright bizarre.
• Lack of offensive diversity. The Herd needed to get more production from its air game (114 passing yards was not nearly enough). 
• Soft pass coverage combined with a non-existent pass rush spelled doom. Over four quarters, Buffalo quarterback Kyle Vantrease rarely faced any semblance of defensive pressure.

Even so, defense proved to be the Herd's saving grace. Buffalo (47.8 points and 309 rushing yards per game) was held far below its eye-popping season averages.

Now, allow me to put the spotlight on Grant Wells, the Marshall quarterback who has received boat loads of blame for the Herd's recent offensive slide. In my humble opinion, I say it's time for all detractors to exercise some radio silence and acknowledge what transpired in the game's closing moments.

Wells, a redshirt freshman, is not a finished product by a long shot. No.8 is still subject to growing pains, indecisiveness and bad judgement just like any other up and coming QB. The maturation continues.

 Marshall DB Steven Gilmore
breaks up pass intended
for Buffalo WR Trevor Wilson.
(Photo by
Jake Crandall/
Montgomery Advertiser)

Given all that Marshall did to shoot itself in the hoof, Wells -- with no timeouts and 1:09 left to play -- scrambled for a first down and completed three passes to put his team in the red zone. With 30 seconds to go in regulation, the Herd had a first-and-10 at Buffalo's 20-yard line.

But the Herd would get no closer. On third and fourth down plays, Wells was sacked to end the game. What happened in those waning seconds has more to do with game experience as opposed to lack of skill or game smarts.

As Wells logs more crunch-time game experience, he'll develop a keener sense for pressure. He'll learn to bolt from the pocket earlier so he can buy enough time to extend plays. Acquiring that skill set, however, cannot be done in scrimmages. Getting tested under actual game conditions is the only way.

With Wells, there's so much upside. No need to fret about his first bowl game. The kid will continue to grow. He'll be fine.

MVP trophy went to the wrong player

I do understand the logic in picking Buffalo RB Kevin Marks as the Camellia Bowl MVP. Marks, subbing for the nation's leading rusher Jaret Patterson (injured knee), scored the game-winning touchdown on a 2-yard run with a little over a minute remaining in the fourth quarter. Marks finished with a game-high 138 rushing yards.

Coming down the stretch, Kyle Vantrease was the
 prime factor for the Buffalo Bulls.
(Photo by Jake Crandall/Montgomery Advertiser)

But ... when I consider the context of the game, Marks can't be that guy. Yes, he scored the game-winner. But keep in mind that Marshall let him score so that its offense would have enough time to put together a final drive. The Herd made it interesting, but just couldn't add the finishing touches at the end.

Marks did all of his damage in the first half with 110 rushing yards. Over the final 30 minutes, however, the Herd clamped down and Marks was a non-factor.

The MVP should have been Vantrease (completed 16 of 27 passes for 140 yards). Yeah, his passing stats are hardly spectacular. Still, there's no denying that when his team needed it most, he delivered.

On Buffalo's game-winning drive, Vantrease connected twice with wide receiver Antonio Nunn. The first hook-up was a 26-yard pass play that put the Bulls in the red zone. Two plays later, Vantrease threw a 12-yard pass to Nunn on a post route which set the stage for Mark's short-yardage TD run.

-Craig T. Greenlee

 

Herd faces huge challenge in bowl showdown

Marshall will need QB Grant Wells to play
at an all-star level to best Buffalo.
(Associated Press photo/Emilee Chinn)

On paper, the prospects don't look very promising for Marshall when it faces Buffalo in the Camellia Bowl on Friday afternoon.

In other words, the Thundering Herd could be in for a blue Christmas.

Christmas Day/December 25th
Montgomery, Alabama
2:30 p.m. (Eastern time) on ESPN

For starters, MU (7-2) will not have three of its best players available because of opt-outs. RB Brenden Knox (2019 Conference USA MVP), OT Josh Ball and LB Tavante Beckett were 1st team all-league picks. All three decided to skip the bowl game to begin their preparation for the 2021 NFL Draft. All three are projected to be chosen in the mid- to late-rounds.

On the plus side, though, there is ample  talent remaining, which includes 13 other Marshall players who were either first- or second-team All-CUSA. But whether that's enough to push the Herd over the hump remains to be seen.

Areas of concern

Loss of key personnel isn't the only issue. The Herd's performance level has been problematic over the last two games, which resulted in surprising home losses to Rice (20-0) and Alabama-Birmingham (22-13 in the CUSA title game).

As for Friday, it's crucial that Marshall's offense finds a way to get back on track. Execution has been woefully inadequate (averaging a meager 7.5 points in two previous outings). 

The Herd's inability to sustain drives and move the chains has put a strain on the defense, which hasn't played badly. But it hasn't been good enough. At the same time, they're not as dominant as they were in the first seven games when MU was undefeated.

Lately, the defense is on the field a lot longer than usual. In the late stages of games, the weariness begins to show and it results in MU not being able to deliver much-needed stops.

Time of possession a major factor

Examples: Rice controlled tempo with its ground attack and kept the ball for 36 minutes, 26 seconds. UAB was even more effective in imposing its will. The Blazers generated 468 total yards and dominated time of possession (41:26)

Buffalo (5-1) is a much different animal than UAB. Not only do the Bulls average 47.8 points and 309.5 rushing yards per game, but they have the nation's leading rusher in Jaret Patterson (178.7 yards per game).Patterson's health, however, is a question mark.

Buffalo running back Jaret Patterson has rushed
for 19 touchdowns this season (tied for second in the nation).
Photo/thecapitalsportsreport.com

In Buffalo's 38-28 loss to Ball State in the MAC championship game, he injured a knee in the third quarter and came back in the fourth quarter, but ran just one time. Media reports indicate that Patterson is expected to play on Friday.

There's a possibility that Patterson might be reduced to spot duty if he's not completely recovered. If that's the case, Buffalo will call on Kevin Marks, who ran for 97 yards and averaged 10.7 yards a carry in the MAC title game.

Long odds

Given Marshall's situation entering the Christmas Day contest, there's no denying that the Herd faces long odds to win. QB Grant Wells must rediscover his throwing touch. And he will need help from a productive running game that will help the Herd build confidence and momentum as the game plays out.

In one game, anything can happen. So, the Herd cannot be counted out. But the loss of three marquee players combined with this recent losing skid could be too much for Marshall to overcome.

My prediction: Buffalo 29, Marshall 20.

I would love to be wrong about this. After all, games are not played on paper. That's why they play in the first place. Stay tuned.

-Craig T. Greenlee